Total Expectation Theorem
Last modified: July 21, 2026
Law of Total Expectation (Partition of Events)
$$ \text{Let } {A_1, A_2, \dots, A_n} \text{ be a partition of } \Omega \text{ with } P(A_i) > 0. $$ $$\large \mathbb{E}[X] = \sum_{i=1}^{n} \mathbb{E}[X \mid A_i] . P(A_i) $$Law of Total Expectation (Conditioning on a Discrete Random Variable)
$$\large \mathbb{E}[X] = \sum_{y} \mathbb{E}[X \mid Y = y]. P(Y = y) $$Law of Iterated Expectation (General / Tower Property)
$$ \large \mathbb{E}[X] = \mathbb{E}\left[\mathbb{E}[X \mid Y] \right] $$Law of Total Expectation (Continuous Case)
$$ \large \mathbb{E}[X] = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} \mathbb{E}[X \mid Y = y] , f_Y(y), dy $$Conditional Law of Total Expectation
$$ \large \mathbb{E}[X \mid Z] = \mathbb{E}\left[ \mathbb{E}[X \mid Y, Z] \mid Z \right] $$Conditional Event-Based Version
Let (A) be an event with $\mathbb{P}(A) > 0$ and let ${E_1, E_2, \dots, E_n}$ be a partition of (A).
$$
\mathbb{E}[X \mid A]
\sum_{i=1}^{n}
\mathbb{P}(E_i \mid A).
\mathbb{E}[X \mid A \cap E_i]
$$